The real estate market in France is going through a phase where prices tell only part of the story. Since the beginning of 2026, it is financing that truly determines access to property: rising credit rates, lengthening loan durations, and an increasing gap between energy-efficient properties and energy-inefficient ones. Measuring these discrepancies helps to understand where the market stands in the summer of 2026, well beyond national averages.
Real Estate Credit in 2026: Rates, Durations, and Household Solvency
The main constraint on the market does not come from a collapse in prices. It comes from the credit faucet. According to the Crédit Logement/CSA Observatory, the average mortgage rate reaches about 3.30% in July 2026, a level not seen since late 2024.
To compensate for this increase, banks and borrowers are extending repayment durations. The share of loans over 20 years has risen from about 79% in 2024 to over 84% in July 2026. The average duration now exceeds 21 years (around 253 months).
| Credit Indicator | 2024 | Summer 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Average Rate | Lower, decreasing | About 3.30% |
| Share of Loans > 20 Years | ~79% | ~84% |
| Average Duration | Less than 250 months | ~253 months |
| Number of Loans Granted | Recovering | Declining over 3 rolling months |
This table illustrates a precise mechanism: household solvency is artificially maintained by extending durations. The actual borrowing capacity, at a constant monthly payment, is decreasing. Buyers who find real estate information on French Home can track these financing indicators, which weigh more heavily on a project than the displayed price per square meter.
Energy Performance and Real Estate Prices: A Two-Tier Market
The price gap between well-rated homes and energy-inefficient ones is widening significantly. Properties labeled F or G are experiencing significant discounts compared to those rated A to D, a phenomenon that several professional barometers describe as hyper-polarization.
Several factors contribute to this gap:
- The gradual bans on renting out the most energy-consuming homes are pushing landlords to sell, increasing supply in this segment.
- Buyers are incorporating the cost of energy renovation work into their budgets, which reduces the acceptable price for poorly rated properties.
- Banks are increasingly examining energy performance in their loan application processes, making financing more difficult for energy-inefficient homes.
The result is a secondary real estate market divided by the energy quality of the property, rather than just by location. An apartment rated B in a medium-sized city can sell faster than a G-rated property in a sought-after neighborhood.
Energy Performance Certificate and Negotiation: What Changes Practically
Negotiation margins on energy-inefficient properties are increasing. Sellers of F or G rated homes must accept discounts or invest in renovations before putting their properties on the market to maintain their price. In contrast, energy-efficient properties retain shorter selling times and stable prices, sometimes slightly increasing in metropolitan areas.
Volume of Real Estate Transactions: The Slowed Recovery of 2026
After a year in 2025 marked by the beginning of a recovery, the first half of 2026 presents a more nuanced picture. The market approaches 950,000 sales over a year in France, a figure that reflects a return of activity compared to the low of 2024, but still falls short of the levels of 2021-2022.
This recovery is fragile. The number of loans granted has declined in recent months, suggesting a slowdown in transactions in the second half of the year. The new build segment shows a paradox: housing starts are up nearly 30% in the first half, while sales of new homes remain down.
New vs. Old: Opposing Dynamics
The supply of new homes is increasing, driven by building permits issued since 2025. Developers are restarting projects, but buyers remain cautious about new prices, which are often several hundred euros per square meter higher than renovated old properties.
In the old market, the situation heavily depends on location. Dynamic metropolitan areas see localized price increases, while some rural or peri-urban areas stagnate. The ERA network notes that price gaps between segments have never been so pronounced in the first half of 2026.
Real Estate in France: Signals to Watch in the Second Half of 2026
The second half opens with a tension between two forces. On one side, an increasing stock of properties, sellers more willing to negotiate, and loan durations that still allow for purchases. On the other, rates that are not decreasing, a declining number of loans, and widespread caution among buyers.
The most reliable indicator for anticipating what comes next remains the volume of loans granted. If banks tighten their criteria further in the third quarter, the number of transactions could plateau below the symbolic threshold of one million annual sales. Energy performance will continue to widen the gap between desirable and neglected properties.
The real estate market in France in the summer of 2026 is neither in crisis nor in full recovery. It is structurally segmented, with credit access conditions weighing more heavily than price variations in the purchasing decision.